Macro events that could shape 2019 for investors
Following an eventful 2018, the first quarter of 2019 is already looking intense and packed with many key events to watch, from the upcoming Trump-Kim summit to the political Thai General Elections and the impending deadlines on the Sino-US trade war and Brexit in the UK. Financial markets are so interconnected to these world political events. That is why we consolidated a series of major events below that you should know, to help you stay ahead as you plan your next investment move.
When? | What? | What is its significance |
Feb 27-28th | Trump-Kim Summit 2 | United States President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are set to meet in Vietnam on Feb 27 and 28, Mr Trump told Congress in his second State of the Union (SOTU) address on Feb 5th. However, official talks on denuclearisation have yet to make progress and the meeting will be closely watched following the developments on the Korean peninsula.2 |
March 1st | US-China Trade War Deadline | With no scheduled meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi before March 1st, possibility of a trade deal is rather slim, which means that additional tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods may be imposed from current 10% to 25% on March 2nd. 3 |
March 19-20th | US FOMC Meeting | The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting is set to take place on 19-20 March 20194. With the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent dovish stance on 30th Jan 20195, observers now expect that there will be 0-1 rate hike, with the possibility of even a rate cut.6 |
March 24th | Thai General Elections | In an unprecedented move, Thai Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi, 67, stood for a party linked to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to be up against the country’s current prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha. However, she was disqualified by the country’s Election Commission as PM candidate, after her bid was deemed “inappropriate” by King Maha Vajiralongkorn.14 This will be Thailand’s first general election after five years under military rule and will be closely watched as more developments continue to unfold.1 |
March 29th | UK Brexit deadline | With the UK scheduled to leave EU on Friday, 29 March 2019, the uncertainty on the outcome has sent jitters from companies to individuals. In its latest quarterly health check, the Bank of England cut its growth forecast for 2019 from 1.7% to 1.2%, blaming a slowing global economy as well as Brexit uncertainty for the sharp downward revision, and said there was a 25% chance of a recession this year.7 |
April 17th | Indonesia General Elections | The Indonesian General Elections will be held on 17th April 2019 with a rematch between incumbent President Joko Widodo and retired Army General Prabowo Subianto. While most surveys show Jokowi leading by a large margin over challenger Prabowo, victory is not a foregone conclusion with an upset still possible as surveys do get it wrong sometimes.8 |
April/May (T.B.C) | India General Elections | The Indian General elections are due to be held between April and May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The elections can be held at an earlier date if the Council of Ministers recommends dissolution of the 16th Lok Sabha to the President of India.9 |
May 13th | Philippines Midterm elections | The 2019 Philippines Midterm elections will be conducted on May 13, 2019 and the winners will take office on June 30, 2019, midway through the term of President Rodrigo Duterte.10 |
May 23-26th | EU Parliamentary elections | The European Parliament elections will be interesting to watch this time as there may be clashes over fundamental policies with ripple effects on other European institutions and national politics. The continent wide vote to be held on May 23-26 will be the first European Union ballot since a member country, the UK, decided to leave the bloc.11 |
June 18-19th | US FOMC Meeting | The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting is set to take place again on 18-19 June 20194. Will the markets continue to see a slowdown in rate hikes? |
June 28-29th | G20 Summit | The 2019 Group of 20 leaders’ summit will take place in Osaka, Japan on 28-29 June and is expected to focus on international finance and economic issues and global themes related to the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.12 |
September 17-18th | US FOMC Meeting | The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting is scheduled on 17-18 September 20194. How will the Fed adjust the rates this time? |
October | Canada General Elections | The 43rd Canadian general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. Will the current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continue to lead the Liberals to victory?13 |
December 11th | US FOMC Meeting | The final US FOMC meeting for the year is set to take place on 10-11 December 20194. Will the rate hike slowdown continue or pick up again? |
Information is accurate as at 11th Feb 2019.
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1. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47167378
2. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/trump-plans-to-meet-north-koreas-kim-in-vietnam-feb-27-28
4. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/stock-market-wall-street-focus-on-fed-rate-decision.html
6. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/06/economy/janet-yellen-fed-rate-cuts/index.html
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Philippine_general_election
12. https://g20.org/en/summit/about/
13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Canadian_federal_election
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Information is correct as of 14/02/2019.